Forecasting the Future of Travel in the Era of Covid
We are now experiencing an unprecedented shift in the way that we traverse our world. Once a thriving amalgamation of international air travel routes, with thousands of people being transported around the world at any given moment, we have come to a quick and daunting halt. With airlines now struggling to not fall further in debt from losses relating to travel restrictions, regulations requiring spacing that will require a careful restructuring of aircrafts and airports, as well as mandatory temperature checks among other precautionary measures; we have swiftly fallen upon times in our travel industry that no one could have predicted.
For many years we have been enjoying what may have seemed like the golden epoch of air travel, with cheap flights in abundance, and unbeknownst freedom to travel quicker and more frequently than ever before. Until we have achieved some control over this novel virus, it is highly unlikely that personal trips and vacations will take the same form as they typically have, and it is likely that for at least the short foreseeable future; travel will be limited to those on business and mandatory trips. Here we will explore what the implications of travel in the age of Covid may be.
The Rise of Luxury
A market that I believe may be able to prosper in these times, depending on the approach and how various areas of the economy fare, will be the luxury travel market. The reason for this, is that this style of travel is often inherently distanced from others, and what you are often paying for in added privacy would be further suited to the current global conditions. With density being a primary issue at the forefront of all of these conversations in regards to public health and virus spread, it is a reminder that in the realm of travel; a higher price tag begets a higher degree of removal from many of these risks.
First class travel, from its lounge access to its pod seating, has always maintained much of its allure through the privacy component. Upon arrival at your accomodation, if you not already disembarking on an island or remote resort locale, you will likely be escorted personally by hotel personnel to a private car which will take you to your city hotel suite or penthouse. Typically, the cleaning and service standards at these locations will be higher than lower end accomodation, and as such will pose a generally negligible risk to the discerning luxury consumer and traveller.
If positioned right, I believe that the luxury market will be able to successfully maintain their current market, as well as appeal to an increased market share by virtue of these factors; perhaps convincing those that could afford this scale of travel but typically decide to direct their buying power elsewhere, to indulge in a heightened degree of luxury and thus increased level of safety, even if it means fewer trips overall for them. I for one, am quite curious to see how various hotels, airlines, and tourism boards respond to what I believe will be a unique opportunity for luxury markets to seize more market share and increase the allure for those wishing to travel in these uncertain times.
2) A Return to the Era of the Road Trip
On the other side of the coin, of course luxury travel is only possible for a very select group of the population especially given the rather dire economic situation many find themselves in following the novel coronavirus. The era of the backpacker, the nomad, or the wide eyed gap year student galavanting around Europe by hitchhiking and staying in the cheapest locales possible, may have seen its heyday for the foreseeable future. Even for middle class travellers, being packed into confined economy seats, or in the smaller spaces allotted for cruises and resorts around this price point; it will pose novel challenges for the businesses and difficult decisions for the consumers. I believe that we may see a return to a different, pre mass air travel era, time of travel which saw aspiring travellers traversing local terrain by automobile. The road trip is a tried and true method of seeing our world, hallmarked and tested by many a curious globetrotter before us. Accompanied by a good playlist, good company, and maps in hand (or Waze up and running); driving within your state, province, or country could prove to be an excellent adaption to those looking to have that feeling of wonder which comes with exploration.
Even for the people that do find ways to travel, our behaviour will undoubtedly be altered to adopt a more local frame of mind. For the time being, there would be little extravagance in travelling around a crowded urban metropolis all day. Rather, what we may notice is a return to local roots whereby whether at our homes or staying at a hotel, we opt for exploration of the neighbourhoods, shops, and dining options within a walking range and enjoy the numerous pleasures of downtime in our own spaces.
While for some, none of the above options may seem appealing, it is inevitable that we will have to adapt to the changing face of travel for the foreseeable future. If there is one thing that I have learned about the international travel community, it is that people are resilient and creative, and the nomadic spirit will always seek out new ways to explore. We may not know how long these measures will take place, and exactly what effect they will have on the travel industry, but I think that it is vital to look forward and attempt to find ways to upkeep our adventurous spirits and seek out the wonder that many of us find in travel.